Commentary
Regular readers know that I went out on a limb with my predictions in the midterms. Not since my “Kasich for President” post on May 30, 2015 was I so wrong. Crow is hard to swallow.
Today, the full results of candidates for the House are still not in, and we are awaiting a runoff between Senate candidates Walker and Warnock in Georgia on December 6, 2022, but the rumbling over former President Trump’s expected decision for 2024 already looms large, along with the future of the Republican Party.
During my career in public affairs, I was often called upon to draft a position paper on a particular issue to present an opinion with the goal of convincing readers that I had done my research and that my position was valid and worth considering.
I have decided to use the position paper format – introduction, body of facts and conclusion – to present my position on the future of the Republican Party. I will consider what took place in the midterms, the probability of Trump’s decision to run along with the possible decisions by others, what the party needs to do and how the voters might respond.
A true position paper runs a number of pages depending on the issue. In this endeavor, however, I need to be brief due to space limitations, and will be dividing it into three parts over three days. I hope you will take the time to read it to the end.
A Proposition for the Return to Dominance of the Republican Party in 2024
Introduction
Initially, a number of questions need to be answered.
How could we lose so badly when 80 percent of voters in a CBS/YouGov poll said the country was “out of control,” and 76 percent of voters in a Rasmussen survey thought the country was on the wrong track?
With concern over inflation and the price of gas, food, and other goods, the Washington Post reported that Republicans were better on the economy by 14 points and inflation by 12 points.
How could we lose when we had successfully transformed the party into the party of the working class, long considered the Democrat Party’s base?
How could we lose when we had gained the support of white suburban women (57 percent), Hispanics (40 percent) and young blacks (22 percent)?
How could we lose when, under the Biden administration, children learning was set back 1 to 2 years because of Teachers’ Union influence on classroom lockdowns?
How could we lose when, under Biden’s open border policy, more than four million illegals and untold quantities of drugs crossed our border?
How does the Republican Party recover from that “Red Wave” that never materialized?
Finally, what are the prospects for party leadership that the majority can solidly support.
Body of Facts
After researching the voting patterns and trends published by several firms, I decided to use the pre-election and Election Day survey of about 100,000 respondents who said they voted or intended to, conducted by the NORC at the University of Chicago for the Associated Press, Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.
While black and Hispanic voters still identify solidly with Democrats, there was a shift to the Republicans’ favor, highlighted by a movement of 22 percent by younger blacks.
White women in the suburbs flipped to the Republicans after favoring Democrats in the past two elections, but overall 49 percent of the women still voted Democrat versus 48 percent for Republicans out of the 52 percent voter base.
Among men in the 47 percent voter base, 55 percent voted Republican.
Independents – Republicans held a four-point lead with Independents in late October, but according to exit polls, roughly 49 percent nationwide chose Democrat candidates.
The Issues
In considering the issues, the economy and jobs was the most important issue for 66 percent of Republicans and 32 percent of Democrats. While 88 percent of Republicans saw immigration as an important issue, just 10 percent of Democrats viewed that as important.
Fifty-eight percent of Republicans viewed crime as an important issue, while 38 percent of Democrats viewed it as less important than a number of other issues.
Democrats viewed several issues more important than the economy; climate change (87 percent), gun policy (80 percent), abortion (78 percent) and healthcare (72 percent).
May God continue to bless the United States of America.
