Commentary
“Trump Actually Has Pretty Good Odds of Getting Back to the White House. Yes, he can win.”
After reading the above headline over the opinion piece in the left-leaning Politico Magazine last month, I set it aside with other commentary on the presidential election for an occasion like this to weigh other opinions.
First, you need to know that Rich Lowry, editor-in-chief of the right-leaning National Review, wrote the piece as a contributing writer with Politico. Although Lowry was behind the Review’s 2015 “Against Trump” edition that contained anti-Trump essays written by 20 conservative writers, Lowry and the Review, and many of the 20 writers, have since changed their viewpoints on Trump.
“The thrice-indicted, twice-impeached, once-defeated, politically toxic Republican standard-bearer has a real shot at the presidency again,” Lowry begins. “By every conventional standard, Donald Trump should long ago have resigned himself to a pleasant retirement playing golf at his clubs, but instead he is marching toward the Republican nomination and could, quite plausibly, return to the White House.”
Conceding that the odds may be against Trump in a rematch with Biden, Lowry avoids the use of the phrase, “can’t win.”
While Lowry’s opinion contained a number of poll statistics, I chose not to repeat them here because they are already outdated since the publication in July.
I simply thought Lowry’s piece would be a good entrée for my Biden vs Trump outlook.
On one hand, Lowry writes about the indictments and possible convictions hanging over Trump, he reminds readers that we are also looking at an unpopular incumbent, who doesn’t control Congress, who has limited power to change his image, and who’s a hostage to his health and the state of the economy.
While Lowry concludes with the desire for Republicans to offer someone who’s fresh and relatively young, with much less baggage, “failing that, the GOP is going to bank on Trump not being literally unelectable and hope for the best.”
“It still seems faintly incredible that the next presidential election could be a rematch of the last one.”
That lead paragraph and the headline, “Trump vs. Biden: The Nightmare Can Only Get Worse,” from Gerard Baker’s Wall Street Journal column this week, finally triggered this blog piece.
Baker noted the Journal’s recent poll revealing the same proportion of voters – 39 percent – with a favorable opinion of Mr. Biden and of Mr. Trump. “Whatever else this may be,” he wrote, “it isn’t a rematch by popular acclamation.”
With a look back, Baker wrote of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 79 percent approval rating in 1955 when he was about to face Adlai Stevenson, the Democrat, with no published rating.
Humorously, he recalled Stevenson’s response to a supporter who told him that every thinking man in Americas was voting for him. “That won’t be enough. I need a majority,” Stevenson answered.
Back to the Biden-Trump meeting, Baker believes things are going to get worse, suggesting that “we can reasonably guess what will happen to Mr. Trump’s standing” with the endless court appearances, the breathless daily coverage of every piece of evidence, of every hostile witness, maybe even a conviction or two. All not likely to elevate him in the eyes of independent voters.
“But there are several good reasons to think that things could get noticeable harder for Mr. Biden’s standing, too,” wrote Baker, citing Hunter’s problems, immigration, Ukraine and the economy.
Citing the Journal poll, he notes that 73 percent of voters think him too old to run for president, while 60 percent say he isn’t mentally capable.
Early this month, I saved Wall Street Journal columnist William A. Galston’s commentary, “Biden vs. Trump Is Bound to Be Close,” as I contemplated this outlook.
“If Messrs. Biden and Trump end up as the standard bearers of their parties, the 2024 presidential election will be unlike any that we have seen in our lifetime.”
Galston doesn’t view the election as a referendum on the incumbent but a choice between two men who have occupied the Oval Office and whose agendas and governing styles are known.
‘Biden is seen as more honest and likable,” according to Galston, who views Trump as “a stronger leader with a better record of accomplishment in office.”
On the horizon, Republican voters are looking forward to the second debate on September 27, 2023 and the Iowa caucuses in just four months.
The 2024 elections are still 418 days away. Too long. A lot can happen with both the Republican and Democrat candidates. Will it be Biden vs. Trump?
May God continue to bless the United States of America.
