Commentary
As I publish this edition, the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was being released. I was struck that in paragraph three, it states that “The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.”
“Extendable” = Stall.
Looking ahead, I thought I would share with you comments I have read going into this release.
“We are closer to a peace deal than ever before,” said Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been trying to broker a deal between Iran and the U.S., “with finalization likely expected in the next 24 hours.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry rep said the deal could happen in the next few days.
“Iran will not have a nuclear bomb. The great Iran deal is here,” declared President Trump.
Here’s what I’ve been reading:
“The emerging agreement ends a costly war but leaves Iran’s leadership intact and its nuclear future still subject to negotiation.” – The Washington Post
“Victory in Iran. Trump had a happy birthday, and the world has a new tomorrow. The alliance among the USA, Israel and the 6 Gulf states has castrated Iran and changed the Middle East for the better. – Don Surber, blogger
“It’s the exact same deal except for the 14,000 military strikes that buried their entire nuclear program under rubble so deep the Iranians can’t even reach it.
“We destroyed 82% of their defense industrial base. Sank their entire navy. Grounded their entire air force. And oh yeah, the Ayatollah, Qasem Soleimani, and the top two tiers of their leadership are DEAD.
“Other than that, totally the same as Obama’s deal.” – Marc Thiessen, former G.W. Bush speechwriter
The Wall Street Journal editorial board disagrees: “Mr. Trump’s willingness to use military force when no one else would has set back Iran’s nuclear program, military and industrial base. The result isn’t “Obama deal 2.0” because, unlike in 2015, Iran’s key nuclear facilities are in rubble, and its enrichment of uranium has been halted for the first time in 20 years.”
“Don’t break out the ticker tape just yet.” – Eli Lake, journalist
“Trump has an opportunity to forge lasting peace, however difficult or delicate it may be at first. Yet he’s still left Iran with a choice – its leaders can fulfill the demands of peace or suffer the consequences or war.” Daniel McCarthy, The Spectator
“Not for the first time, we may be on the brink of a deal to end the war with Iran. If this one holds, President Trump is to be congratulated, not pilloried. He faces a choice between high-risk escalation with an uncertain outcome and cutting our losses with an imperfect deal. “– Gerard Baker WSJ columnist
With no sight of the MOU
“After more than three months of bombing and blockades, the U.S. and Iran are back to square one, preparing for what promises to be difficult negotiations over limits to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
“This time, the Iranians will come to the table armed with valuable knowledge: They can survive the worst the Americans can throw at them.
“None of that happened, despite the killing of much of Iran’s senior leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the decimation of the country’s navy, air force and other military assets.
“Iran is leaving this war with a sense of euphoria. Iranians will view with great skepticism that they will face a significant military threat if these talks are not progressing. And so there is a high likelihood that these talks will be inconclusive.
“Iran is still in a vulnerable position, given the economic pressure that the country will face, and the incredible cost of undergoing reconstruction after this war. The country has absorbed huge costs. Iran cannot undergo a full reconstruction after this war without broad sanctions relief. And so the incentive remains there to get a full agreement.” – Ben Domenech, The Transom
Another View
“The full memorandum of understanding text hasn’t been released, and Mr. Trump says some of it is “a little conceptual.” Which is the problem. It would defer most matters of the nuclear program to 60 more days of talks, with oil and other sanctions relief along the way in exchange for diplomatic progress.
President Trump is touting his latest cease-fire deal with Iran as peace in our time, but the world is more likely to see it as a strategic retreat short of achieving his war aims. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump is accepting Iran’s promises merely to negotiate over its nuclear program.
Most of the press has been hostile from the start, but we’ve supported the President’s Iran policy. We’ve done so because a nuclear Iran would be an existential threat, and because we want Presidents to succeed when they go to war.” – WSJ Editorial Board
Finally, with that support of President Trump, why in hell did the Journal give John Bolton op-ed space to criticize Trump’s assault on Iran just days after he pleaded guilty to 18 counts for the retention of classified national security information. While fined for $2.25 million, he will likely not serve the five-year sentence in the deal.
Regular readers will recall that I believed that Trump needed to order bombing that would destroy the remaining ballistic missile locations and other strategic facilities on our target list. He chose the diplomatic course. Trump has intimated doing just that if Iran fails to adhere to the negotiations. We’ll see. I don’t trust Iran.
May God continue to bless the United States of America
